The Ones Who Would Be King

As the sun sets on the reign of King Ralph, the palace princes are coming out onto the court. Premier Ralph Klein may have promised that he was staying on the throne until 2007, but nobody seems to believe him.

By Darcy Henton

The race is on – albeit underground – to curry money and political favour to mount a charge to the castle. Already a half dozen contenders have announced their desire to rule Alberta, where there’s a pot of gold at the end of nearly every fourth-quarter rainbow. But until Ralph says it’s time, they run quietly in the shadows. So Albertans are none the wiser for what’s in store once the inevitable succession takes place. But by reading the signs, you can get a hint. They point to continuity as far as economic policy is concerned.

While none of the contenders is blessed with Ralph’s folksy charm, they all have the same strong pro-business bent and hands-off approach to the economy. Despite oil prices gushing past the $60 US-per-barrel mark and the provincial debt just a dim memory, there’s no talk of spending like a drunken roughneck. It’s a very cautious crowd that’s lining up for the leadership of the Progressive Conservative Party of Alberta.

The acknowledged front-runner, former provincial treasurer Jim Dinning, wants to make Alberta the world’s clean energy powerhouse. He launched a leadership website last April and hit the speakers’ circuit over the summer to begin selling his vision.

Former economic development minister Mark Norris, likewise unencumbered by the harness of caucus collegiality after losing his seat in the November election, was soon at his heels. That forced a loyal stable of serving cabinet ministers – David Hancock, Ed Stelmach and Lyle Oberg – and powerful newcomer Ted Morton to step out of the shadows or risk being lost in the dust.

Like most of his rivals, Morton, the voice of the Tory hard right, also has a website; he spells out his views on everything from social issues and agriculture to the gun registry and the Kyoto Accord.

Advanced Education Minister David Hancock and International and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Ed Stelmach began actively fundraising for their campaigns as early as June. They, along with Oberg, who as infrastructure and transportation minister is in a position to pave all of Alberta, are promising more of the same business conservatism that Albertans have seen during a dozen years under Klein. Stable government. Investment in infrastructure. And no radical changes in royalties despite record oil prices. Nothing to rock the oil tanker that fuels the Alberta economy.

“I think they all have a pro-business agenda and the person with the most significant ties is Jim Dinning,” says Calgary political science professor Keith Brownsey. “He is a player in the world of Alberta business.”

Health Minister Iris Evans and former health minister Gary Mar, now minister of community development, are considered long shots for the post. Evans says she has been encouraged by supporters to run, but doesn’t dream of being premier while Mar, who may have peaked too early and been wounded by controversy, has quietly dropped out of sight. Or maybe he is just hiding in the weeds.

Calgary political scientist David Taras says Mar, who as community development minister during the province’s centennial has been handing out cheques and meeting people across the province all year, could surprise a few people. “There’s somebody who, if he decided to run, has probably made a lot of friends this year.”

An expedient departure by Klein would grease the skids for Dinning, who most believe would win in a slam dunk if the race began today. “He has the background, the interest and the experience,” notes political commentator Mark Lisac, publisher of the legislature newsletter Insight into Government. “If anyone has been groomed for the job, it’s him.”

Taras, who teaches political science at the University of Calgary, says Dinning is the heir apparent, the prince in waiting. “He has the most money, he has been organized for a long time and the fact he hasn’t been in government recently doesn’t take the shine away.”

But Taras says Conservative Party members who will ultimately choose Alberta’s next premier don’t know how much Dinning’s values have changed since he wielded the axe during the Klein Revolution, slashing education and health care budgets. “Presumably he will not refute the policies he engaged in as treasurer – that government should be run like a business, that there should be no debt or deficit, that a major part of government service should be privatized. The key question is whether Dinning has moved from that.”

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